Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:
| Scenario | Percent orig. R0 | Percent increase from current R0 | Effective R0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.40% | 0.00% | 0.96 |
| 1 | 35.30% | 57.60% | 1.51 |
| 2 | 48.30% | 115.60% | 2.06 |
| 3 | 61.20% | 173.20% | 2.61 |
| 4 | 74.10% | 230.80% | 3.16 |
| 5 | 87.10% | 288.80% | 3.72 |
| 6 | 100.00% | 346.40% | 4.27 |
In the figures below:
A dashed line represents healthcare resource capacity limits.
Black dots depict COVID-19 data, with counts from outbreaks in nursing homes removed (for more details see Data).
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