Social Distancing Scenarios

Scenarios evaluated

Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:

• Effective \(R0\): The effective R0 this % decrease corresponds to
• % of original \(R0\): Percent of the original (pre-social-distancing) \(R0\) the effective \(R0\) this scenario represents
• % Increase from current: Percent increase from current (as of 2020-05-29) level of social distancing / contact rate

Scenario	Percent orig. R0	Percent increase from current R0	Effective R0
0	22.40%	0.00%	0.96
1	35.30%	57.60%	1.51
2	48.30%	115.60%	2.06
3	61.20%	173.20%	2.61
4	74.10%	230.80%	3.16
5	87.10%	288.80%	3.72
6	100.00%	346.40%	4.27

Increase contact rate on May 16th, 2020 by variable amounts

In the figures below:

A dashed line represents healthcare resource capacity limits.

Black dots depict COVID-19 data, with counts from outbreaks in nursing homes removed (for more details see Data).

Scenario 0

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 0.96
• % of original R0: 22.4
• % Increase from current: 0

Scenario 1

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 1.51
• % of original R0: 35.3
• % Increase from current: 57.6

Scenario 2

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 2.06
• % of original R0: 48.3
• % Increase from current: 115.6

Scenario 3

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 2.61
• % of original R0: 61.2
• % Increase from current: 173.2

Scenario 4

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 3.16
• % of original R0: 74.1
• % Increase from current: 230.8

Scenario 5

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 3.72
• % of original R0: 87.1
• % Increase from current: 288.8

Scenario 6

Equal to:

• Effective \(R0\): 4.27
• % of original R0: 100
• % Increase from current: 346.4